In the 5-day distilling Workshops, I like to show the parabolic growth curve of craft distilling start-ups. I repeatedly caution that as a former stock broker, I am wary of things that go parabolic. I point out, usually to glazed-over eyeballs in the room, that the cheap-money, stupid-money Central Bank policies of the current time are fueling all things parabolic. Back in the 60’s and 70’s we had various fads. Today, fads have been replaced by short term parabolic bubbles all fueled by easy credit. With the stroke of a pen right now, I could mortgage my house. With one phone call I could drain my investment accounts. With that money in hand, I could easily find some flimsy financial institution to lend me even more. I could then go on to launch a craft distillery. Experience? Recipe development? Marketing strategy? Hell – who needs any of that when you have a bagful of money!
I am not then shocked to see on average two craft distillers a month in the USA going under. I watch the discussion forums on-line and it pains me to see people obviously going through angst as they liquidate equipment and even barrels of product. The bubble has burst. The wave has crashed over the bow.
So what to make of it all?
My message is simple. A bursting bubble is a good thing.
Remember way back in the 90’s when the Nasdaq tech bubble broke? Did all tech firms go under? No – they did not. The smart ones actually benefited by acquiring the assets of the failures. Remember the 2008 sub-prime mortgage implosion? Remember the more recent oil price implosion? In both these cases, the smart players who saw the trend changing were able to capitalize on the failures of the weak players.
And so it shall be with craft distilling.
Thinking about starting a craft distillery are you? Good! Now – relax and take a breath. Your timing is fortuitous. The urgency for fast action is off.
Take the time to develop recipes. Take a 5 day course! Take the time to develop a sound marketing plan and brand image. Look for used equipment that is being liquidated. Even if you have to store it for a while somewhere – no worries. The craft beer brewing movement went through a multi-year pause in the late 90’s as the first parabolic wave broke. Then, the marketplace caught up, the consumer became more savvy and a new phase of growth unfolded.
I suspect we will see something similar in craft distilling. There will be now a multi-year pause in net numbers of craft distilleries. Th weaker players with their poor recipes, poor websites, poor brand image and inferior equipment will be flushed away like grain kernels down a floor drain. But, the strong will survive. The consumer will catch up and eventually a new growth wave will unfold. To those aspiring new entrants that properly prepare for this new wave – the benefits will be many. It is just unfortunate that so many rushed in so fast on this initial parabolic wave and are now getting hurt. But, such is the nature of our fast money, stupid money economy. As the old saying goes….caveat emptor.